20 Limit Hold'em statistics

Poker is a game of skill and luck, but anyone can maximise the skill and minimise the luck by remembering a few facts. So don’t play another hand until you’ve got the following 20 snippets of info lodged in your brain…

1) Premium Hands

The probability of being dealt a ‘Group 1′ starting hand (J-J, Q-Q, K-K, A-A, and A-K suited) as defined by David Sklansky in his book The Theory of Poker, is a mere 2.1%. So don’t wait for them, or you’ll be blinded out before you play a hand!

2) Flush ‘Em Out

If you’ve got four cards to the flush after the flop you’ll make your hand 34.97% of the time. That’s just over a third.

3) “But They Were Suited!”

Don’t play any two cards just because they’re suited. The difference between suited and unsuited hands is a mere 2.5%.

4) Paired Up

The chance of one of your unpaired hole cards making a pair on the flop is 32.43%, or about a third of the time.

5) Hitting the Board

If you see all five community cards you’ll make at least a pair with one of your unpaired hole cards roughly half the time.

6) Straight Talking

If you flop an open-ended straight draw (eight outs) you’ll hit your hand by the river 31.5% of the time, so make sure you’re getting pot odds to see the next card.

7) Three of a Kind

The odds of flopping a set are a prohibitive 7.5/1 – so make sure you only play small pairs cheaply, and in hands where you can cash in if you do hit.

8) Inside Straight

Rarely worth drawing to, with the turn and river cards to come you’ll hit your gutshot straight (four outs) approximately 9% of the time.

9) Over-pair

When two pairs go head to head, the bigger pair will win approximately 80% of the time (or four times out of five). So when you’re sitting there with Queens and see a bet, raise and re-raise in front of you, you might want to think about laying the ladies down – you could well be up against Aces, Kings, or possibly both.

10) Perfect Cards

It’s very rare to be drawing dead after the flop but there are times when you need two exact cards on the turn and river to win the hand. For example, A♥ J♣ vs A♦ 3♠ on a board of 6♥ J♦ 9♣ requires the A♦ 3♠ to hit two consecutive Threes, of which there’s just a 0.3% chance. If a Three arrives on the turn, there’s now a 4.55% chance of hitting the final Three on the river to win the hand.

11) It’s a Race

A pair against two over-cards is often referred to as a coin-flop or race, because they each win approximately half the time. This varies depending on whether the over-cards are suited or unsuited. The range for suited cards varies from the pair being a 54% favourite to a 46% underdog. The range of off-suit hands varies from the pair being a 57% favourite to a 48% underdog.

12) Kicker Trouble

You’re a big underdog in a showdown where your top card matches the other person’s, but your kicker is smaller. For example, Q? against A ? , K? (both unsuited) has only a 24% chance to win (or about one in four).

13) Suited Connectors

People talk about middle suited connectors being the best hand to bust Aces with because of the straight and flush possibilities. But if you’re holding the Aces, don’t panic – the over-pair will beat the suited connectors approximately 80% of the time.

14) Pocket Pair

It might not feel like it but you’ll be dealt a pocket pair, on average, once every 17 hands, or about 6% of the time.

15) Flush Up

There’s a reason for mucking rag hands, instead of holding onto them just because they’re suited. The reason being that the chance of flopping a flush is a mere 0.8% or 124/1.

16) All the Twos

The probability of flopping two-pair (with two different hole cards both hitting) is approximately 2%.

17) Full House

The probability of making at least a full house by the river when you have two-pair on the flop is 16.74%.

18) Full House 2

Even better is when you flop three-of-a-kind, where you’ll make a full house or better by the river 33.4% of the time, or one in three times.

19) Live Cards

You bluffed with random cards to steal the blinds. You were called by A-K. Oops! Well, you might feel down and out but you’ve still got a decent chance of winning the hand – in fact, your random lower cards will win about 35% of the time.

20) Jack-ass

Pocket Jacks – one of the most maligned hands in Texas Hold’em. And here’s why – the chance of at least one over-card hitting the flop is 52%, putting your fish-hooks in peril more than half the time.