Amarillo Slim once said, “If you can’t fold the best hand you can’t play.” But then he also once said, “I’d put a rattlesnake in your pocket and ask you for a match” so it’s hard to know what to think.

One thing, however, is for certain: the art of the great laydown is dying out in poker. This is happening for two reasons. First, players are far more loose and aggressive than they used to be. This means it’s often correct to call players with marginal hands. The second reason is the internet. It’s so easy to call when all you have to do is click a mouse, and it’s even easier to be swept up in the momentum of a hand than to work out whether you’re beaten.

However, making good laydowns is vital to being a winning player, no matter what your style.

As Mike Caro famously pointed out, at the end of the year would you rather have $100,000 taken off your losses column or added to your wins column? Well, Mike, most of us would like $100,000 to make the choice; but his point was that wins and losses have the same value, yet most players don’t spend enough time minimising their losses.

When I talk about laydowns I mean folding a hand that has some merit. You’ll get no points for mucking A-K when someone re-raises you on a 9-8-7 flop. I’m talking about folding hands that could be winning, but may be beaten.

For example:

• An overpair to the board
• A set when the flush card arrives. Knowing when to let this kind of hand go is a blend of art and science.

The feeling

Some part of laying down a good hand is down to that overused term in all poker discussions: ‘feel’. You’re sitting at a table, whether it’s live or online, and you ‘feel’ that your hand is no good. Now, if this is a sense, the best way to explain it is your subconscious mind feeding back to you the experience you’ve accumulated in your time playing. Did you pick up on a facial tick? Did they wait too long when betting? Often you’ll be well served by acting on this instinct. One thing that separates the good from the great is the ability to back their instincts at the table.

Some people can do this naturally with complete accuracy, and those people are called Phil Ivey. For the rest of us it’s a skill that can be honed and worked on. Remember, there are two different things to hone: first, hearing the voice that tells you you’re beat; and second, acting on it.

Danger signs

There are basic moves that should get those voices in your head instantly whispering concerns. Min-raises and check-raises practically scream ‘monster’ or, at the very least, a hand that is drawing to the nuts.

When you face either of these value-milking moves think back to the pre-flop action. Did they flat-call and then check-raise on a small to middling flop? It’s quite possible they’ve got a small pocket pair and have flopped a set, and then you’re in all sorts of bother if you still think your overpair is good.

Chips are there for a number of reasons, one of which is to find out if you’re ahead and, if your opponent calls, to determine what they may be holding. If you think you’re facing a player that understands pot odds you can rule out lots of drawing hands if they’ve paid over the odds for a flush or straight draw, especially if they’ve called out of position. If they’ve called your bets on the flop and turn, only for runner-runner flush to pop up on the river, followed by a heavy bet, ask yourself: have they really got the flush? Probably not, but have they still got your top pair beaten?

It’s quite likely, especially if you’ve projected a tight table image.

Weird science

Of course, you can also make your decisions easier with some poker science. First, by looking at pre-flop decisions. In no-limit Hold’em, a lot of the best laydowns are made pre-flop because it stops you from losing a lot of chips in one hit or across a few streets.

Deciding whether to fold a good starting hand pre-flop or commit to it can be difficult, but the shorter you are on chips the easier the decision. Problems arise when you face action pre-flop on a good but not great hand. If you’ve opened for a raise with a hand like 9-9, 10-10, J-J or a big Ace and find yourself being re-raised it can be a tough tournament-changing decision.

Often, the temptation is to call the re-raise and see if the flop helps you. That’s fine, but you can all too easily get trapped doing this. For instance, if you call a re-raise with 10-10 and the flop comes 7-4-2, then your chips are almost certainly going in against a hand that could easily be beating you. Sometimes the best play is to fold the hand pre-flop.

It could be argued that dropping such hands is an unfashionable play, as players are more aggressive now and will re-raise you pre-flop with a wider variety of hands, but that creates an even stronger argument to the ‘find a better spot’ school of thought as you can wait for a premium hand before dropping the hammer.

As with most decisions at the table, laydowns are player-dependent. After playing with someone for a decent amount of time you should sketch out their pre-flop re-raising range, how much they’ll bet with a premium hand, and how often they will do it as a move with a sub-standard hand.

You should also often be folding semi-decent hands in the blinds. If the pot is opened with a raise and you are in the big blind with A-J or A-10, you should be able to throw these hands away quite easily. It’s often better to lay these hands down and prevent getting into difficult situations later in the hand. Remember, a lot of mistakes and difficult decisions can be traced back to calling with a marginal hand pre-flop.

Odds, I call

Pot odds are an extremely important part of judging when to make a good laydown. A lot of players don’t take them into consideration – or use them wrongly – when they’re in a tough spot. You’ll often hear poor players lament the fact they ‘had pot odds so they had to call’, regardless of their hand or what the pot odds were.

When the betting is ending, i.e. on the river or when the money is going all-in, you should figure out your pot odds. You should then compare this to your chances of your hand being good (if possible, against the range of hands your opponent could be holding) to assess whether it’s right to call or lay the hand down.

So let’s say you’re playing against a weak, predictable player. You’ve been betting two-pair and he’s been calling. On the river the dreaded flush card arrives, you check and he bets. The pot is 7,000 and he bets 3,000. This gives you a price of 3,000 to call, which could see you win 10,000. So your pot odds are 3.333*/1, or 30 percent. Now you need to assess if your two-pair has a 30 percent chance of being good. As an example, you could say there’s a 10 percent chance he’s bluffing (there’s always a chance they’re bluffing even if they’re an opponent who doesn’t do it frequently), a 10 percent chance he has a weaker hand that he now thinks is good because you’ve checked. The rest of the time he has the flush or a big hand he’s been slow-playing.

So there’s a 20 percent chance your hand is still good – not enough to make the call. In this spot, against this weak, predictable player, your best play is to lay the hand down.

Powers of reasoning

Making the right laydowns is tough, as no one likes to think they’re folding the winning hand. So the more times you can use hand-reading and pot odds to make the right deduction, the more often you’ll be able to get away from losing situations and that will win you lots of money in the long run.

Even after this advice, it is most important that you don’t play scared! Just think clearly during a hand, try to deduce what players are holding through their actions and your intuition, then back your judgement to the hilt. Think of the number of times that you thought you were behind but couldn’t face dropping your hand. Now think of how much it would have saved you in chips or cash. The key is to be able to pull the trigger, either by committing to the hand or making a good laydown.

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Move #1: Pay to hit a set

In the early stages of most multi-table tournaments you have a lot of chips relative to the blinds, so losing a few of them early doors isn’t going to do much damage to your tournament chances long-term. In that case paying over the odds with small or medium pairs in the hope of hitting a set is an absolute must.

You’re about 8/1 to hit trips on the flop, but when you do hit, you’ll be in a great position to win a big chunk of chips from someone with an overpair. Your implied odds at this stage of the game are so big that it can be worth investing as much as five to 10 percent of your stack to try and hit a set. Pay over the odds, especially when you’re in position, as you might be able to take the pot by betting out on the flop even if you miss.

Hands: 2-2, 3-3, 4-4, 5-5, 6-6, 7-7, 8-8, 9-9

Tournament clock: Early

Your stack: Average

Move #2: Fast-play monsters

At the start of low stakes tournaments there are a lot of fish. These aquatic types will call huge bets down with top pair/top kicker because they’re blind to the fact that someone might bet two-pair or a set so hard. You’ll also get some terrible calls from players paying way over the odds for drawing hands, so make sure you punish them.

Hands: A-A, K-K, sets, flushes and straights

Tournament clock: Early

Your stack: Any

Move #3: Push the flush

You’ve put in a healthy raise with two suited face cards and have got one caller, only for the flop to bring rags. But all is not lost – you’ve flopped a big flush draw. If you’re first to act and have your opponent heavily outchipped, try checking the flop to incite your opponent to bet, which they’ll do more often than not whether they’ve hit it or not. Now take this opportunity to hit them hard with a check-raise, pushing your entire stack in.

If you find yourself short-stacked or it’s the middle-to-late stages of a tournament then you’re usually best shoving your chips in as first to act on the flop when a pot-sized bet accounts for a third of your chips. If your opponent calls with an overpair to the flop (but which is lower than both your hole cards) you’re actually still a slight favourite to win. Combined with the fact that you’ll often make a player drop their hand this semi-bluff shove is a powerful weapon to have in your arsenal.

Hands: A-Ks, A-Qs, A-Js, K-Qs, Q-Js

Tournament clock: Any

Your stack: Medium to large

Move #4: Stop-and-go

The stop-and-go is a great move to make when you’re in the blinds and starting to run low on chips and ideas. The tactic involves you calling a late position raise – hopefully targeting a serial raiser – and whatever the flop comes you move all-in. You’re not making the pre-flop call on the odds it will help you (if it does it’s a bonus), but on the fact that two live cards will connect with the flop only a third of the time. Is it a gamble? Yes. Is it a gamble with the odds in your favour? Also yes. You do, however, need to have enough chips left so that it’s not an automatic call for the raiser.

It’s a great move to pull with a low pair if you think an all-in pre-flop would get called because you’re forcing someone who probably hasn’t hit to a tricky decision if they want to see the final two cards. If they’ve hit already then they would have hit by calling your all-in anyhow. But by pulling this move you’ve got an extra chance for survival.

Hands: Any

Tournament clock: Middle to late

Your stack: Small to medium

Move #5: UTG raise with rags

Everyone knows that a minimum raise from under the gun is often a sign of strength. It’s not likely to be respected in the first few levels when it costs so little to see a flop, but in later levels, when the blinds are larger and most of the fish have already been knocked out, a minimum raise from under the gun will be respected if you’ve been playing tight.

If you meet some resistance, in the form of a big raise, then you know you’re usually up against a genuine hand, in which case you can just fold. So although stealing from UTG is a ballsy play it’s potentially profitable providing you don’t do it too often. You’re also more likely to get it through as a low or medium stack as the raise will look extremely suspicious, as if to say, “I want action!”

Hands: Any

Tournament clock: Middle to late

Your stack: Any (but preferably medium to large)

Move #6: Short-stack shove

Tournaments are all about survival, but there’s no bigger sin than blinding yourself to death. So when your total stack is down to around seven to 10 big blinds it’s time to take a deep breath and stick your chips in the middle. And it’s even more important to look for the right spots to do this. Always make sure you’re the first into the pot (unless you have a monster) so that it puts the decision onto the other players at the table and they have no chips already invested. If the action is folded around to you be prepared to push with any Ace, any pair or suited connectors, where you think you’ll have live cards if someone calls. The closer you are to the button the looser you can be with your hand, purely on the basis that there are fewer players to get past. Likewise, if the players in the blinds are sitting on medium-sized stacks you should be pushing with any two cards. They’ll be loathe to risk half to three-quarters of their stack with anything but a big hand. And even if they call, 7-9os will beat A-K suited a third of the time.

Hands: A-x, suited connectors, any pairs

Tournament clock: Middle to late

Your stack: Low

Move #7: Pre-imperilled shove

Tournament players have become so accustomed to the short-stack shove (see Move 6] that they are far more likely to call with a weak Ace or a couple of high cards than ever before, which is great if you have a genuine hand. The only problem is that once your stack is running low you can’t guarantee that you’ll pick up a marginal hand let alone a premium one.

Therefore, an all-in move with a stack of over 10 big blinds will be a lot more respected than a standard short-stack shove as most players appreciate that short-stacks will push with any two cards if they’re given a chance. Although your risk-to-reward ratio is higher you will be more likely to get your hands through.

This move is important to throw in if the blinds are about to jump up a level because it will effectively cut your stack, and chance of making other players fold, in half. Picking up the blinds, or doubling through, will keep you in the race at the higher blind levels.

Hands: A-K to A-10, K-Q, K-J, Q-Js, 10-10 to 7-7

Tournament clock: Middle to late (when the blinds are about to change)

Your stack: Low to medium

Move #8: Beat the bully

There’s always one player who will raise every time from the button or late position if it’s folded to them. And after a few rounds it’s quite obvious who they are. Target these loose-aggressive individual(s) with selective re-raises when you have position on them or when you’re battling from the blinds.

You should invariably be raising rather thancalling if you don’t believe someone’s pre-flop raise is genuine. This way you’ll give yourself the chance to either take the pot down there and then, or your perceived strength should enable you to take control of the pot with a confident continuation bet after the flop.

Of course, you may find yourself getting re-raised pre-flop, at which point you might have run into a genuine monster, and on these occasions it’s best to fold. But don’t let it put you off – if the aggressive player knows he can steal your blind every time, he will.

Hands: Any

Tournament clock: Any

Your stack: Any

Move #9: Big stack pressure

If you’ve never been the big chip leader in a tournament before you’ve got something to look forward to. You can use your stack to put pressure on your opponents with smaller stacks, pushing every edge and generally being an all-round meany. Use frequent testing bets and raises when you get close to the money.

Short-stacks will be in shove-or-fold territory while the medium-sized stacks will be all too aware of the fact that you have them easily covered. You’ll frequently get your raise through scooping the blinds and antes, which will slowly turn your big stack into an enormous one. What’s more, it’s great fun winning loads of pots with rags.

Hands: Any

Tournament clock: Middle to late

Your stack: Large

Move #10: Squeeze play

Why do you raise in late position with marginal hands? To steal the blinds. So what do you do when there have been lots of callers behind a single raiser? Raise, of course. Make sure you put in a big enough bet that you’re not giving ‘value’ to any of them to call. If you get past the initial raiser then you’ll almost always get past everyone else.

If they had a truly premium hand they would have probably re-raised rather than called. Punish their weakness! Usually you need to make a pot-sized bet to scare others off. So if the blinds are 100/200 and there’s been a raise to 600 and one caller, the pot will be 1500 before your call. Make it 2000 to go and watch their hands hit the muck.

Hands: Any

Tournament clock: Any

Your stack: Medium to large

Having a medium stack in tournaments is always an uncomfortable situation.

You’ll often be put in tough spots, and need to decide whether to hold back and conserve chips, or go gangbusters and try to accumulate chips. Here, we’ll look at what do who when you’re in the situation of having a medium sized stack.

First, let’s define what a medium stack is. Since you stop being short-stacked when you have over 12 big blinds, for the purposes of this article we’ll focus on situations where you have between 12 and 25 big blinds.

“Let’s gamble!”

The tournament’s structure will have a big effect on how you play your medium stack.

In faster structures, there’s more pressure on you – and your chips will soon reach emergency levels. This should make you more inclined to take on 50/50-type situations (e.g. playing for all your chips with hands like A-Q or 8-8 against an underpair or overcards).

In slower structures, medium stacks have more room to breath. You might be able to chip away at your opponents’ stacks, but you can still get away from hands – as you will have longer before the blind pressure becomes intolerable.

The mistake many players make when they have a medium stack is feeling too comfortable.

If you have chips towards the top of the middle stack range (say, 20-25 big blinds) it’s still easy for all your chips to end up in the middle in one hand. Almost any re-raised pot pre-flop will be all-in by the flop.

It could be argued that having between 12 and 16 big blinds is the hardest situation to be in.

This is because you’re not under immediate threat from the blinds (or may not feel so) but if you do enter a pot you can very quickly become committed to it. This can lead to difficult spots with semi-strong hands, and if you’re called when attempting to steal the blinds.

Players often make the mistake of folding when it’s correct for them to call.

For instance, let’s say the blinds are 100/200 and you have 2400 in chips (12 big blinds).

If you raise to 600 and the big blind calls there is now 1300 in the pot and you have 1800 left. It’s now not possible to make a bet that doesn’t commit you to the pot.

You’ll either have to get all your chips in or fold. You cannot bet and then fold to a raise as the odds you’ll be getting to call are too great.

The solution to this situation is to steal less and to re-steal and re-raise more. Any time you open a pot with a standard raise you should know what you’ll do if you’re re-raised. Although this is true at all times in No-Limit Hold’em, it’s particularly important as a medium stack when you can be pot-committed so easily.

If you’re going to make a standard raise as a blind steal with a medium stack (especially at the lower end of the range) you should choose your spots very carefully. If you get action from a tight player you’ll very often have to shut down after the flop.

Applying pressure

Re-raising and re-stealing are very important weapons to have when possessing a medium stack.

Both moves can be used to put a lot of pressure on your opponents and maximise your ways to win, by either forcing your opponents to fold or by having the best hand at showdown if called. As a medium stack you restrict your opponents’ options when you re-steal – they can only call or fold.

Re-raising pre-flop is generally a better option than calling in No-Limit Hold’em, and with a medium stack it’s almost always the better option. This is due to a combination of it being better to commit your chips as the aggressor, particularly in a situation where you may well end up committed later in the hand, but crucially because you’re putting pressure on your opponents to fold. Other medium stacks will often fold too much in tournaments giving your re-raises great equity.

Re-stealing is valuable for the same reasons, and if you pick the correct spot it greatly increases your equity in the tournament – as you’re winning more chips than your fair share.

With more and more players opening pots with marginal hands to steal the blinds it’s vital you have it in your armoury. When looking to re-steal from an opening raiser you need to consider the range of hands he will bet with and the range of hands he’ll call a re-raise with. Obviously the more likely the raiser is to be stealing the more often you should re-steal. You can do this with a very high frequency if the player doesn’t call re-raises often enough (most players you’ll encounter).

So, for example, you’re in the big blind with blinds of 100/200 and you have 3,000 chips. An aggressive player with 4,000 chips raises to 600 from the button. You should be looking to move in here reasonably often. If he’s a typical player he’ll be opening with a huge number of hands that can’t call your all-in. If they fold you pick up 900 chips, increasing your stack by 30 percent. If you’re called and double-through you’re well on your way to becoming a big stack again. Any time you find a hand with some value (especially hands that play well against an opener’s calling range – e.g. suited connectors) you have an opportunity to push your medium stack.

Battling the shorties

The final note I’ll leave you with is about playing against short stacks when you have a medium stack. When raising a short stack you have to think about what kind of player they are. If they have the kind of stack that’s likely to make a stand you should tighten up your opening and stealing standards.

On the other hand many players don’t call enough when a short stack moves in. This is because you’ve correctly been taught to be the aggressor in pots. However, if the short stack is moving in with a substandard hand this can be a great opportunity to get some chips in positive equity situations. Just remember to consider which stacks are left to act after you!

Medium stacks can be difficult to play and greater experience at spotting the right situations to commit chips is the key to improving your play of them. Just remember to always be an active player and look for opportunities to put pressure on your opponents.

Between the devil and the deep blue sea

It’s no fun when you’re stuck in the wrong place…

Being sandwiched between a big stack and a short stack is a typical situation for a medium stack and can often force you to make tournament-defining decisions. Imagine you have an aggressive chip leader to your left on the button and an aggressive short stack to your immediate right who keeps shoving all-in. You are in the cut-off when the short stack shoves all-in.

How should you play the following hands from the cut-off?

• Blinds: 100/200
• Big stack: 19,000
• You: 5,500
• Short stack: 1,400

With K♦ Q♠

Usually pass. Calling is dodgy as it invites a raise from the players behind or others may enter the pot giving you a tricky post-flop situation. Moving in is an option but the hand is not very strong, and if another player calls you’re almost always behind and often dominated.

With 8♣ 8♥

Move in or occasionally pass. Calling isn’t an option because it invites others into the pot and the hand plays badly post-flop. Moving in is a good option, as you’ll often isolate the all-in player who you are usually ahead of. However, there is the risk that the big stack could find a hand and put your tournament life in jeopardy too, so passing is also fine.

With A♦ A♠

Move in or call – both options have their merits. Moving in is fine with any big hand in this spot. However, calling is also an option as the weak-looking call may induce a squeeze play from the big stack or another aggressive player in the blinds, putting you in a great position to double up.

Whatever stage you’re at in a tournament make sure you’ve got a plan of how to build your tower

Early stages

Vary your play according to the structure. If it’s a slow structure, try and steal your way to a big stack. If the structure is fast, look to get your chips in even when you’re marginally ahead – taking a 50/50 race if necessary, especially if you’re getting better odds on the call. Build that stack for the big blinds to come.

Middle stages

This is where it’s vital not to sit on your medium stack. Use it to make plays and take calculated risks to give yourself a shot at the big prizes. Don’t sit on your stack or the blinds will turn your medium stack into a small one.

Late stages

Balance aggression with avoiding unnecessary confrontations. Keep the pressure on your tight opponents who are looking to move up in the money with re-raises and re-steals. Try to avoid playing hands that you’re not willing to be completely committed to.

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It’s one of the first things you learn when playing tournament poker: don’t bet into a dry side-pot.

People say that if you and an opponent see the flop when a third player is all-in, you shouldn’t normally bet – because it’s more important to eliminate the all-in player than win a few extra chips.

This has become one a common fallacy in poker. In fact, there are many situations where it is correct to bet rather than attempt to knock out the third player. Let’s look at some situations where it is correct to bet into a side-pot – and some where it’s best to hang onto your chips.

When not to bet

First of all, let’s talk about situations where this received wisdom is true. That is, when you shouldn’t bet into a dry sidepot:

One situation is when you’re in the bubble stages of a tournament, or when you’re at a stage in the tournament where there’s about to be a significant jump in prize money. Then, your primary goal is to eliminate players. That’s because you make money time a player is knocked out.

For example, imagine you’re in a tournament where 27 places are paid, and 28 players remain. The player in 27th place gets $10,000, while 28th place gets nothing.

If two of you are in the pot and another player is all-in you should do whatever is necessary to eliminate the opponent who is all-in.

Usually, this means checking the hand down to give the maximum possible chance of eliminating the third player. (If your hand doesn’t eliminate the all-in player, your opponent’s hand might.) So In general, you would only bet a very strong hand like a set, straight or flush – hands that are virtually guaranteed to win the pot.

If the third player is eliminated, you’ve just earned $10,000 in real money. But had you had bet, you may not have eliminated the player – and may even have risked going out on the bubble yourself. Obviously, this alternative costs you money in the long run, and it’s something you should avoid.

So it’s clear that there are situations where you should not bet, and should try to eliminate players instead.

However, the big mistake so many players make is to carry this advice over to all tournament situations, instead of just the specific ones it applies to. They see this as universal advice because they don’t fully understand the concepts behind it.

When to bet

Take the same situation, but now there are 500 players remaining, again with 27 places paid. In this case, eliminating a player has almost no value whatsoever – there are no big money jumps or significant prize differences to worry about. It’s great if you send someone to the rail, but there will still be 472 other players to eliminate before you make any real money.

Consequently, you should make whatever play has the highest expected value at the time – your overall equity in the tournament is not yet important. Often, this means protecting your hand by betting, regardless of whether there is a side pot.

Let’s look at an example:

The blinds are 100/200, and Player A raises all-in for 1,500. It’s folded to you on the button, and you call with A♣ Q♠. The big blind also calls, making the pot 4,

The flop comes Q♣ 9♥ 8♥, giving you top pair with top kicker – a nice hand. The big blind checks. Remember, Player A is still all-in.

Now it’s on you. This is a situation where if it was the bubble, you would definitely check. You wouldn’t mind too much if the big blind held something like A♥ 10♥ and made a flush or a straight – because at least the third player would be gone and you would have made some real money.

However, at the early stages of a tournament, you should almost always bet. At this point in proceedings, winning that 4,600 pot is much more important than eliminating the all-in player, and you would be annoyed if you let your opponent hit a flush or straight and win the hand for free.

Therefore, you should protect your hand by making a suitably large bet, and make your opponent pay to hit his draw.

Because most players do not generally bet when there is no side pot and a player is all-in, be aware that if you are called in this situation, your opponent will rarely have a weak hand. If you are called on a dry-looking board like Q♣ 7♥ 2♦, you should slow down accordingly against typical opposition. If you get called on a draw-heavy board and the draw hits, you should be very careful.

As you can see, poker isn’t as simple as some would make it out to be. Generic advice like ‘don’t bet into a dry side pot in tournament poker’ shouldn’t be taken at face value, so the next time you hear Captain Casino and his re-buy army offering poker lessons like this at the table, think about what they are saying in more detail. Try to work out if the underlying concepts are correct – and why – before applying them yourself. As this rule shows, received wisdom isn’t always reliable.

Side Action

The following hand involving Ted Forrest (in the Mirage Poker Showdown, WPT season four) shows why it can pay to bet into a side pot…

The Scenario

It’s four handed, blinds are 15,000/30,000 with a 3,000 ante and the starting pot is 57,000. Kido Pham has just lost most of his chips and is pretty desperate. In first position he moves all-in for 190,000. In second position, Ted Forrest, with 2,690,000 in chips, looks down at A♠ 9♠ and quickly calls. Chris Bell, on the small blind and with 1,485,000 in chips, also calls. Gavin Smith, on the big blind, folds. There’s 603,000 in the pot and the flop is K♥ 8♠ 4♠. Chris Bell checks. Now it’s up to Ted.

The Play

Many players would check here without thinking, but Ted is not so hasty. Ted isn’t here to move up the pay ladder into third place, which pays $289,693 compared to the first place prize of $1,153,278 – he wants to win. He throws out a bet of just under half the pot, and Chris Bell folds. Internet forum posters, ever ignorant and quick to criticise, ripped into Forrest for making what was actually a world-class play.

Ted knows that Kido Pham’s range of hands is extremely wide, and includes many holdings that he is a big favourite against – like worse Aces and small suited connectors. He would be unlucky to run into a hand that has him in big trouble, and probably expects to be at worst a coin-flip. Chris Bell’s hand is somewhat more of a mystery – not strong enough to re-raise and isolate on Kido, but good enough to call.

Analysis

By betting, Ted achieves several things at once

He protects his hand in case Chris has called with a hand like Q♥ J♥, which would fold to a bet, but which has a chance to outdraw him.

He can isolate on Kido Pham, whom he is probably a significant favourite against. If Kido has a smaller ace, Ted is a huge favourite. If Kido has a pair smaller than Nines (which hasn’t flopped a set), Ted is a still a favourite with Aces, Nines and spades to hit on the turn or river.

He creates dead money. If Chris folds, Ted has increased his equity in the pot significantly because Chris has contributed to the pot but cannot possibly win it. Ted may even eliminate some hands that are stronger than his own.

In the unlikely event that Chris has a genuine hand, Ted may still win a giant pot and eliminate Chris Bell if he hits his flush on the turn or river, because it’s very unlikely for Chris to put him on a drawing hand.

The only downside to betting is that the chances of Kido Pham being eliminated on this hand are slightly decreased, because there are some variations where Kido makes a hand that’s better than Ted’s, but would have lost to Chris’s had he remained in the hand.

The Result

In the actual hand, Chris Bell folded pocket Nines and the turn came with the case 9, giving Ted a pair that was enough to beat Kido Pham’s A♣ 5♦. Ted went on to finish second in the event after taking a couple of nasty beats, with Gavin Smith the eventual winner.

There’s no doubt about it: when it comes to your chip stack, bigger is better. But what can you do when you’re not so well endowed (with chips)?

In tournaments, the worth of a man’s play can truly be measured by the size of his stack. But, to coin a phrase, although bigger is undoubtedly better, it’s not necessarily the size of your stack that matters, but what you do with it. In tournaments, players will find themselves in situations to which they are unaccustomed. Sometimes, you will find yourself the chip leader, on other occasions you will be chip dog. In these two situations, the same hand must often be played very differently.

How to play with a big stack

When you have a big stack, people take notice. Opponents are much less likely to steal your blind or raise into you. That’s because in tournaments, once you lose your chips, you are history. One of the most basic rules is not to get involved with the chip leader unless you have to.

Much of what you do, as ever in hold’em, will be dictated by position. When you are in early position (for instance, first, second or third to act in a nine-handed game) you need a genuine hand to raise. Even if you are a massive chip leader, you don’t want to risk losing your chips to people behind you. If you are on a slow clock (the blinds only go up infrequently), much of the play will take place at the final table and although your chip lead is important, you will not win the tournament when there is more than one table left. So from an early position you must have a premium hand.

You should avoid regularly playing medium suited connectors such as 6c 7c or 9h 10h. The reason for this is that in no-limit or pot-limit, after a couple of hours of play, the blinds will be big enough that you will be unable to call a significant-sized raise. If you do look down to find AK, QQ, KK or AA then it is better to raise. It is unlikely, if you’re the big stack that you will get re-raised. Therefore, you are likely to face two or three players and will be an underdog to win the pot, whereas if you only have one caller, you will be favourite, unless he has a higher pair.

In mid-position (fourth, fifth or sixth to act in a nine-handed game) you can be slightly bolder than in early position. If you are sixth to act, you may think about stealing the two blinds. This is an advantage of having the big stack. As in late position, it depends who is to act after you. If they are rocks who will fold if anyone raises them when they don’t have a premium hand, then it is worth exploiting when you have a passable hand.

You would not want to raise with 94 off-suit, but you could raise with A9 suited or J10 suited because – unless you run into a monster hand like kings or aces – you will see a flop and have a chance of flopping at least a draw. You can try and see more flops in mid-position when you have a big stack. Even if it is just the big blind and yourself who see the flop, it may be worth a bet if your hand has not improved. That is because even if the big blind has bottom or middle pair they may not call a raise and risk getting into a battle with the big stack.

Conversely, if you do have a premium hand, you may only want to call a raise or make a small bet into an unraised pot. If you have Aces, your big stack will scare off A10 or AJ with a re-raise. It may be better for them to hit their 10 or A and think they have the best of it, thus enabling you to extract some more chips out of them.

Leave it till late

It is in late position that being the biggest stack is most advantageous. Playing on the button at all but the most aggressive players, you should try to steal their blinds irrespective of your cards. You should not even have to look at your cards!

Your opponents will really need to have a hand to enter a flop with the chip leader. If they have a monster, they will re-raise and you can put it down, but if they have a fair hand such as A10 or 99 and don’t hit their flop, you can find this out with one bet and may well take a larger pot than if you had not raised it. You can also do this from one off the button or in the small and big blind. The exception is when facing a small stack as they may be forced to call to avoid being blinded away.

Don’t be one-dimensional

Even when you’re more heavily stacked than Dolly Parton, it is important to vary your play. If you keep raising, all but the weakest players will twig and start playing back at you. You want to take your fair share of blinds from late position, but don’t want to be in every pot. Even in late position it is not advisable to continually be calling with AQ or QJ suited or any hand where if you hit you can still do your dough. You also don’t need to be in the 50/50 pots.

Avoid calling when you think you are facing two overcards to your smaller pair or vice versa. You can raise with these hands, but you don’t need to call as you don’t need be in these gambling hands when you are chip leader.  Be aggressive but don’t be wild or have a laissez faire attitude to your chips. You may be doing well, very well, but the real money in most tournaments does not start until the final table, so you are not moving up the money ladder by gaining chips at this stage, just gaining a stronger foothold on it.

Work on your reputation. If you have become chip leader by playing solid, then loosen up – people will respect your raises. If you have got there through loose play and playing non-premium starting hands then tighten up; only play when you are favourite and you will be paid out on your hands.

How to play short stacked

The people with the most chips know that ultimately their main obstacles to the big stack will be the fellow chip monsters first at their table and then in the tournament as a whole. Often, though, the big stacks will try and delay confrontation with each other. Instead, they gang up on the smaller stacked players to try and eliminate them and move themselves closer to a guaranteed money finish.

The best way to play the small stack often depends on just how small you are. If you are really small and cannot survive more than one more round of blinds then, when you get a passable hand, you have to go all in, whatever position you’re playing. If you find yourself in the big blind and the compulsory posting is half your stack, then you are pot committed and have little alternative but to go all in. You will not survive another round of blinds and even if you do double up, you will only be in the same position again one round later.

It is true tournaments are about survival, but there is no point being blinded away.

Whatever two cards you have are unlikely to be that much of an underdog against any other two cards. Under different circumstances you may have mucked the hand you go all in with but remember that 8-5 off-suit is less than a 2/1 underdog against AK.

Short but not that short

If your stack is short but not dire then you have far more options. Playing in early position, you have to be even more careful what you raise with, as big stacks will be more likely to call you. If there are two of them on your table then they may put you all in and then not bet against each other, to try and eliminate you. If you have aces or kings then you will probably be happy to take your chances, but if you are holding AK or QQ, you may want to see a flop before committing all your chips.

In mid-position and facing only one big stack, you may want to raise with any ace with jack kicker or better and a pair of jacks or higher. If you are unlucky enough to run into something higher then you will need an outdraw, but you may be getting your hand in with the best of it in a two-way pot or win the hand uncontested.

In late position, you will need a lot less to raise the pot. It is not advisable to try and steal the blinds from someone who is chipped up. They may call with less as they can afford to see a flop and may have the added bonus of decimating your stack and knocking you out. If you do want to nick the blinds, it is not worth doing so from a fellow short stack as they too are unlikely to pass even a hand as weak as one high card or anything suited.

It is the medium-sized stacks whose blinds are up for grabs. They will probably give you more respect if you are short stacked as they will reckon you have a lot to lose and would not want to risk tournament exit. Again, whether you want to attempt to take the blinds from the button or one off the button may depend on whether you think you will be called. If the blinds are rocks it may be worth trying to steal, but if they are loose or have been prone to defending their blind, it may be unwise, unless you are sure you will call a re-raise.

Some players may try to hang in there for as long as possible, but this is only the best strategy if you are near (or in) the tournament prize money and there are other short-stacked players. Being short stacked not only makes you a target for others, it bars you from many important aspects of a successful game such as seeing flops, playing drawing hands and picking up the blinds. It is vital to get out of the position as soon as possible.

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You could be minutes from the experience of a lifetime. We put together 30 ways to raise your game to help maximise your chances. Take a look, then enter a satellite and win your seat at one of the WPT’s global events!

1) Don’t chase gutshot draws

When you have 4 of the 5 cards you need for a straight, it’s tempting to call bets and stay in the pot. You’re unlikely to get the right pot odds though, and you’ll rarely hit one of your four outs.

2) Beware Ace-King

Don’t overplay Ace-King! Sure, it’s a big hand, but it’s still a drawing hand.

Against a smaller pair like 8♥ 8♣ you’re an underdog, and against any two other lower cards like Q♣ J♠  you’re 2/1 at best.

So don’t push all-in with Ace-King just because someone has bet in front of you. Instead, put in a raise – and if an opponent re-raises you start to worry that you’re behind.

3) Be patient

Learn to fold hands, even strong ones, and wait for a better spot. Top pair/top kicker is rarely going to be the winning hand if someone has pushed all their chips in the middle.

Dan Harrington – author of poker bible Harrington on Hold’em – cites patience as the most important poker attribute of all.

4) Specialise in one format

When you’re qualifying for the WPT, try to specialise in one tournament format before you try others.

5) Lose gracefully

Learn to deal with bad beats. Poker will send you into a mad rage from time to time but the best players accept the fickle finger of fate and move on to the next game.

6) Take a break between games

If you do go on tilt and start to make decisions you know aren’t correct, get out quick! Log off for a while and do something else.

7) Take your time

When you play on PartyPoker, you get a time back to make a decision. Don’t be afraid to take your time and think through your call carefully.

8) Play for the right stakes

If you play above your means, you’ll be far too worried about busting out, which will interfere with your decision-making and upset your natural game. Generally, if you sit down at a No-Limit cash table your buy-in should represent no more than five percent of your total bankroll. That way, if you don’t cash, it won’t affect you too much.

9) Let go of your favourite hands

Don’t get attached to favourite hands. Just because you once flopped a straight flush with 3♣ 5♣ does not make it a must-play hand. Similarly, ignore the hands the pros are famed for. Just because Brunson won two WSOP titles with 10-2 doesn’t mean you have to play this junk holding.

10) Don’t play small pairs

Dump that 2♥ 2♦! Okay, that’s not always true: if you’re heads-up or short-stacked, play them hard. But if you’re on a full table in early position the only way hands like pocket Deuces are going to win is if everyone folds or you flop a set – which only 1 in 7 times.

11) Don’t give away ‘free cards’

Avoid slow-playing big hands. Bet your pocket Kings and Aces pre-flop, and be wary of slow playing a set post-flop. Even if it pays off now and then, more often than not giving other players free cards can turn into a nightmare when they hit a backdoor straight or flush.

12) Take the breaks

Long sessions are only good sessions if you’re winning. If things arent’ going your way, it may be because the cards aren’t flipping for you – but it’s more likely that you’re not playing optimally. When you’re qualifying for the WPT on PartyPoker.com, you get regular

13) Eat fruit and drink water

There’s evidence to show that eating fruit and drinking water helps you stay focused for longer periods of time.

14) Maintain focus

Concentrate as hard as you can on every hand. Play each one to the best of your ability and watch the table at all times, even when you’re not in a hand, making mental notes on the other players and attempting to pick up any tells they have.

15) Dump ‘problem’ hands

A-10 under the gun on a 10-handed table is not a ‘must-play’ hand. Anyone firing back at you may have you dominated or be holding a pocket pair. But the problem is, you won’t know where you’re at. You’d do better opening a pot with rags on the button.

16) Keep records

Write down key hands in your tournaments, and come back to them later. It can be difficult to spot where you’re going wrong until you look back on your plays later.

17) Take advantage of crazy players

At the start of any multi-table tournament, there are always a few maniacs looking to double or treble through by pushing all their chips over the line with small pairs and Ace-rag. And the best piece of advice we can give is to let someone else deal with them. Unless, of course, you pick up a big pair yourself – Queens, Kings, Aces – where, if they bet into you, you have the weapons at your disposal to take them to pieces.

18) Stand your ground

Of course, you don’t want to be too conservative. Poker is a game of aggression after all. Bully the bully. Isolate the guy who’s been swinging his chips around like a big club and slap them down with a re-raise. It’ll force them to put the brakes on and, like showing fire to a caveman, make them look at you with a newfound sense of respect.

19) Know the facts

You may think of yourself as an instinct player but here are a few

key facts and figures you’ll need on your way to WTP glory.

• 16.5%; You’ll fill your gutshot straight with two cards to come
• 54%; You’ll make at least a straight after flopping an open-ended straight and flush draw
• 11.8%; Your pocket pair will flop a set
• 31.5%; You’ll complete your open-ended straight post-flop
• 32.5%; You’ll pair one of your cards on the flop
• 12%; Your suited cards will flop two or more of the same suit
• 9%; That someone will be dealt pocket Aces or Kings on a 10-handed table
• 35%; You’ll make your flush after the flop with one card needed

20) Pick the right spot

When some ultra-aggressive maniac pushes you all-in for the third time in a row, don’t call with a marginal hand just because you’re annoyed. If you have enough chips to wait until you’re in a better spot, fold and wait for that moment. There’s no shame in folding (most of the time) when you can wait for them to do their schoolboy move again and take them to the cleaners. Alternatively, get your chips in first, and beat them at their own game.

21) Aim for the top

Use a little slice of your profits to play satellite tournaments. Do well in these and you could see yourself qualifying for the WPT.

22) Learn the basics

You need to have a basic idea of maths, including ‘outs’ and percentages, but it’s important to make sure you know the exact figures of one hand against another by using an odds calculator. Explore PartyAcademy’s articles for more on these topics.

23) Push the button

Position is the most powerful thing in the game. Being last to act gives you lots of information and puts you in the best spot for every check, call or bet in a hand. Build the pot, take a free card or scare off the opposition with a meaty bluff. And when you consider you get dealt junk far more frequently than you get dealt monsters, you’re going to have to steal blinds and antes with something. If you can’t rely on getting good cards and having chips, the only certainty in poker is that you’ll have position every rotation of the table.

24) Manipulate pot sizes

Build the pots up when you’re ahead and keep the pots small when you think you might be chasing.

25) Analyse your actions

Don’t blame bad luck or other players when you bust out of a tourney. Look back at how you played key hands and identify any errors or situations where you could have profited or negated your losses.

26) Keep notes on players

Get into the habit of keeping notes on other players. If you play regularly on the same site you’re going to run into the same players frequently. Jot down that they always check-raise the nuts – it could save you from getting busted.

27) Show of aggression

If you’re the first to enter a pot, always bet. Limping in is the mark of a weak player. Entering the pot aggressively puts your opponents on the back foot and makes the pot even juicier for when you do hit a big hand.

28) Lead out

Don’t give up the lead. If you bet or raised before the flop, most of the time you should bet again after the flop, regardless of whether you hit. Most of the time you’ll take the pot down there and then, because the maths dictate that most players miss most flops. If you get heat, and don’t think your hand is best, retreat. But if you think you’re ahead and they’re trying to represent the best hand, test them with a re-raise. Controlled aggression is the winner over the long-term.

29) Watch the best

Sit in on high stakes players online. You’ll get quality tuition for free by watching these shark-infested waters.

30) Join the PartyPoker Facebook group

For more tips and tactics, and regular promotion updates, join the PartyPoker Facebook group.

Poker is a game of betting. Here, we’ll explain what it means to ‘bet’ in poker.

Each hand of poker has four rounds of betting. That’s four separate opportunities for you bet.

To make a bet, you wait until it’s your turn to act, and put extra chips into the pot. Everybody else will have to match your bet. If they don’t, they’re out of the hand.

What’s betting for?

You might wonder: “Why should I bet?”

It’s a good question. After all, when you bet, you put more chips than you have to into the pot. And chips are valuable, right?

Betting serves two purposes:

• To ‘build the pot’. If you put $10 into the pot, your opponents have to match this to stay in the hand. That means you’ll receive a bigger pot if you win. If you have a strong hand, it makes sense to bet!
• To ‘bluff’. Sometimes, players bet when they don’t have a good hand. They figure that the other players might fold, rather than pay to ‘call’ the bet. bet. This is called bluffing.

How much can I bet?

In No-Limit Hold’em you can bet however much you like. You can even ‘go all-in’ and bet all your chips at once. (That’s why it’s called No-Limit Hold’em.)

In Limit Hold’em, the amount that you can bet or raise is fixed – or limited. If you’re playing a $2-$4 Limit Hold’em game, you can only bet or raise $2 for the first two rounds, and can only bet or raise $4 for the last rounds of betting. Similarly, if it was a $10-$20 Limit Hold’em game, the small bet would be $10 and the big bet would be $20.

In Pot-Limit Hold’em it’s a little more complicated – you can bet up to whatever’s currently in the pot.

Choosing the right game can be the difference between cashing big and going bust. So learn to stake out your prey before you sit down.

There’s an oft-repeated quote about poker organiser Eric Drache when he was in his prime: “He’s the sixth best Stud player in the world; unfortunately, he regularly plays with the top five.” Which just goes to show that game selection is everything in poker.

Your money comes from only one thing – having an edge over the other players in the game. If you’re sat at a table with players who are better than you then your expectation is negative and the poker skills that you do have will be largely irrelevant.

Two years ago game selection, or table selection if you prefer, was a dying art. The games online were soft and almost any table you clicked on would be easy for a seasoned player. Sadly, things are different now. But there are still plenty of soft players and soft games, with lots of dead money just there for the taking. This is even more the case now that the game is hugely on the rise across the continent (with thousands of new players signing up each day).

However, it’s also easy to find yourself stuck in a game full of rocks with a couple of multi-tabling pros grinding out a living. For this reason it’s vital to give yourself a head start by investing a few minutes of your time before you begin your session. Making a good table choice can end up rewarding you massively and, for the time it takes, it’s more than worth it in terms of the edge it will give you.
The lobby

To illustrate the point open up the PartyPoker.com software. Take a look through the $1/$2 six-max tables and there is a huge contrast. Some have as little as 18% of players seeing the flop up to a huge 51%. And the average pot size varies from, say, $9.22 to $41.15.

There are tables with up to four players who are multi-tabling and look like pro grinders and other tables with no such players. Clearly you’re going to have a very different type of game across these tables and your edge and expected return is going to vary similarly. It’s no exaggeration to say that you could go from being a losing proposition at one table to having a strong edge at another at the same online site, and all dependent on which table you happen to sit at.

Using these two basic bits of information can prep you for what kind of action there is at any given table and is something you should study as habit. Average pot size gives you an indication of how active the game is and how willing players are to play big pots. The bigger the cash figure the more raises and re-raises are being slung around. The figure can be deceptive at times as it can be easily distorted if one or two huge hands run into each other putting two or more players in deep. More useful is the percentage of players seeing the flop. This tells you how loose a game is and is a reasonably reliable indicator of what kind of action you can expect. The bigger the number, the looser the players, and the more profitable the game could be.

Although it’s possible to be a great loose player and exploit an equally loose game, as a rule of thumb you should be looking for players that will enter the pot with any two cards. Very roughly, when this figure gets towards 30% and over for nine or ten-handed games and is approaching or exceeding 40% for short-handed action, the game is going to be looser than Gus Hansen after a few drinks. In other words, it could be a good session if you play some disciplined poker.

Go deep

It’s often best to look for tables where players have at least the maximum buy-in. Other players may disagree, but if you have an edge over most players at a given limit, why play against short stacks? Short stacks make decisions harder and minimise the amount you can win – not a great combination by any stretch of the imagination.

This can be tricky at the lower limits, as it’s the better players that tend to have the big stacks, but it’s a good guideline to follow. Identifying multi-tabling players should always be part of your table selection regime. If you play on the same site for a while the names of the professional winning players should become familiar and easy to spot and avoid (although don’t feel that you have to lay strong hands down to them). If not, it doesn’t take long to scan the games at your limit to notice the players that are sat grinding away at a few tables. Don’t make the mistake of assuming that multi-tabling players are great players. They’re not necessarily any better than you. But it is very often the case that these players are better than the average player at their limit. They’re probably playing a standard ABC poker at lower limits, so if you can find tables without them, or without more than one or two, it makes sense to do so.

Musical chairs

When you’re trying to pick between similar tables you should always consider the actual seat that’s available. Look at where it is in relation to the other players. As a guideline you want position on the best players and the biggest stacks. Sit yourself to their left if you can. If a good player has position on you they can make what would otherwise be a profitable table into a very difficult one by consistently putting you under pressure because they have position on you. Money generally moves around the table in a clockwise direction so make sure those big stacks are chipping off in your direction.

The final thing to bear in mind is to be flexible about the tables you’re playing at and seats you’re sitting in. Don’t feel that once you’re in a seat you’re bound to it. It’s very easy for a game to change and ‘go bad’ for you. A big-stacked weak player could realise that their luck has run out and leave, only to be replaced by a multi-tabling nit. In fast-paced online games, especially six-max, the make-up of a table changes on a regular basis and you shouldn’t hesitate to leave if you feel there are better and softer games available.

With that in mind it’s worth keeping an eye on the lobby and, once you have tracking software, to keep it running on other tables you’re not playing at. This will give you alternatives if you want or need to change games. It will also capture more information on opponents that you may play against next time you sit down.

Table selection and game selection have always been important factors in poker – if you haven’t thought about it before you need to now. If you’re playing to make money – and why wouldn’t you be? – spend some time looking for the good games. Believe me, it will pay you back many times over.

When it comes to poker players everyone knows the stereotypes – fresh-faced Scandinavians, internet millionaires and grizzled old road gamblers – but in the modern poker world another significant group is the so-called ‘maths geeks’. Most celebrated among these players are those who specialise in an area called ‘game theory’. Game theory is a branch of mathematics that deals with decision making and strategy in situations where competing parties attempt to achieve a goal through optimal behaviour, and where the success of one side can impact on another negatively.

The classic example of this is the ‘prisoners’ dilemma’, where two suspects are arrested and the police, not having sufficient evidence, separate them and offer both a deal. If one testifies and the other stays silent the latter gets ten years and the first goes free (and vice versa), whereas if they both keep silent the punishment is two years and if they both confess it’s six months. In an ideal world, co-operation would be the best option, but assuming human self-interest it is safer for the prisoners to each betray the other.

Game theory was pioneered by John Von Neumann in Theory of Games and Economic Behaviour (1944) and developed further by John Nash, whose work on n-person games revolutionised the field. When his story was told in the film A Beautiful Mind (2001), it gained even more popularity, and this has been reflected in poker. Recently we have seen countless online programs designed for maths-oriented poker players, and analyses of poker as a negative-sum game, where one person’s wins are another’s loss while the house continues to take its share.

In reality, though, game theory has been around for some time, and its figureheads in the poker world – who learnt to play through early computer simulations – are walking, talking proof of its usefulness. David Sklansky wrote about it in his seminal work The Theory of Poker, but the real king of the game theorists is Chris ‘Jesus’ Ferguson. Ferguson used his research and expertise to snare five WSOP bracelets, including the title of World Champion in 2000, and two WSOP Circuit events in 2005 alone, while hiding his mathematical background carefully behind long hair, beard, sunglasses and a trademark cowboy hat.

Analyse this

Poker tournaments are a place where game theory is relevant, but how exactly can it be used? Well, thinking like a game theorist in poker involves reducing the game itself to a series of mathematical problems that can be ’solved’, either with a definite solution like ‘fold’ or ‘move all-in’ or a balance of the possible options that creates the best outcome. A simple example of this can be limping in with Aces 20% of the time under the gun and raising the other 80%.

The correct play in any given situation, of course, depends on how your opponents play, and mixing it up with aces would only be sensible against intelligent opponents. If they were raising all-in every hand anyway you would always just call. The latter is called an exploitative strategy, and there are also many plays in poker that are mathematically unexploitable and therefore always correct. For example, on the bubble in a sit & go a very big stack can profitably move all-in from the small blind with virtually any hand when the blinds get big and everyone has already folded because of the prize-structure implications.

This is the simple side of game theory in poker, but against skilled opposition, who play near perfectly, you would need to employ an optimal strategy – making winning impossible even if they knew what you were doing. For example, suppose you are playing a game where there is $200 in a heads-up pot by the river, you have a 20% chance of hitting your hand and the optional bet is $50. Given all these factors and the fact that your opponent is getting 5/1 on a call ($50 to win $250) you should bluff another 4% of the time, duplicating the odds that your opponent gets on the call into your bluffing strategy, which makes his decision equally bad either way.

Similarly, when you are facing top-class opposition you need to mix up your play throughout a hand to make it difficult for your opponents to read you. Limping with aces a certain predetermined amount of the time is one simple example, but against the best this needs to be carried through into the rest of your play. For example, when most cautious players flop a set they check in the hope of inducing action, but more aggressive players will tend to bet out with it in the hopes of disguising the hand and winning a big pot.

Money talks

A game theorist wouldn’t ask which play was right, but what blend of the two was the most profitable. This would also involve factors like their player image and be adjusted based on whether the opponent had any exploitable tendencies. But if they decided that the split was 2/1 in favour of checking the hand (assuming the flop brought no flush or straight draws) the decision after that point should be as random as possible.

For this reason, players have been known to use devices like the second hand on their watch or a credit card number to help them choose randomly the course of action they should take. So think carefully before you act the next time a cowboy looks at his watch before betting into you!

Game Theory in Practise

The secret of making game theory work for you is in keeping your opponents guessing.

You are playing against a table of world-class opponents in a WPT event, and late on you call a raise from one of them with 10-10 on the button to see the flop come a beautiful 10-9-9 with two suited cards. You only have 15-20 big blinds left in your stack and the raiser fires out a bet of about five big blinds.

Do you:

• a) fold
• b) call
• c) raise
• d) all-in?

The answer is b) call or c) raise all-in. If you only have one predictable move per situation, a great player will see them reading you like a book. Calling with a monster here and only raising all-in with a big draw or pair is what would be expected. But against this player you need to mix it up to create an optimum strategy, and part of this play should be occasionally moving all-in in a situation like this with the nuts to keep them guessing!